The Mexican peso (MXN) is the tenth most traded currency in the world. Predicting the volatility of the exchange rate in the short term is undoubtedly a challenge for heavily traded emerging markets, which are subject to natural speculation against less volatile currencies in the short term. Palabras clave: Tendencias de Google Similitud empírica Niveles de agregación Volatilidad Tipo de cambio Además, de que de acuerdo con nuestro saber existe escasa literatura que utilice las tendencias de Google para explicar variables económicas relevantes. Se concluye que el tomar en consideración la variable de tendencia de Google no es suficiente para explicar el comportamiento volátil semanal del tipo de cambio y que es necesario incorporar más niveles de agregación. Por ejemplo, un inversor que desea conocer el valor que tomará una variable en el futuro tomará en consideración información relevante, conocida y disponible, y la ponderará para calcular su pronóstico.
VALOR DEL DOLAR HOY MEXICO SERIES
Algunos de estos modelos utilizan series de tiempo, mientras que otros utilizan la función de similitud, que captura la forma cognitiva del razonamiento humano. Se realizó un comparativo de modelos que en la literatura ya han incorporado las tendencias de Google como variable explicativa. Keywords: Google trends Empirical similarity Aggregation levels Volatility, Exchange rateĮn este trabajo se muestra la ventaja de usar tendencias del motor de búsqueda de Google para pronosticar la volatilidad de corto plazo (semanal) del tipo de cambio peso mexicano - dólar estadounidense. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, literature on the subject of using Google Trends to explain relevant economic variables is relatively scarce. We conclude that taking into account the Google Trends variable helps explains partially the behaviour of volatility and it is necessary to incorporate more aggregation levels. For example, an investor who needs to know the value that a variable will take in the future will take into account relevant, known, and available information, and weigh it to calculate the forecast. Some of the models are based on time series, whereas others are based on the similarity function, which captures the cognitive form of human reasoning. We perform a comparison of models in the literature that have used Google Trends to examine explanatory variables. dollars using the applicable exchange rate without prior notice to you.įor additional information related to Wires and foreign currency wires, please see the Wells Fargo Wire Transfers Terms and Conditions.We show the advantage of using Google search engine trends to forecast the volatility of the short-term (weekly) exchange rate between the Mexican peso and United States dollar. Incoming wire transfers received in a foreign currency for payment into your account will be converted into U.S. We may refuse to process any request for a foreign exchange transaction. Wells Fargo is your arms-length counterparty on foreign exchange transactions. Foreign exchange markets are dynamic and rates fluctuate over time based on market conditions, liquidity, and risks. Different customers may receive different rates for transactions that are the same or similar, and the applicable exchange rate may be different for foreign currency cash, drafts, checks, or wire transfers. The exchange rate Wells Fargo provides to you may be different from exchange rates you see elsewhere.
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